Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Why Vitor Belfort Is Anderson Silva's Toughest Fight To Date

Vitor Belfort is set to face Anderson Silva this Saturday (February 5) in Sin City.This will be the "Spider's" toughest challenge in the UFC. Why? Because Vitor Belfort has the experience, speed, power, and overall game to beat anyone on any given night. The two Brazilians will give the fans a great show and the difference in this encounter, from past viewing debacles and spiritless challenges, will be the legitimate threat to Silva's dominant reign.

In examining why this bout differs from the rest, consider to whom we are comparing Vitor. Yes, I agree that Anderson Silva is the best fighter in the world. I also believe that he and I lament that he has not been fully tested. Who has he been given as opposition? Realistically, consider these match-ups and imagine how any of these opponents could have beaten the greatest UFC champion of all time?

Chris Leben: His "dump truck" mentality begs to be knocked out. An exciting fighter, but not a top-tier guy. He is a perfect match-up for an elite, technical, striker.

Travis Lutter: Travis came in overweight, gassed out, and was cut after his following fight, a loss to Franklin. He is subsequently 1-1 outside of the UFC. While he performed well in the first round by hitting some nice takedowns and offered a brief mounted attack, he suffered a terrible beating from the Spider's triangle attack and elbows and tapped in the second round. End result, he never hurt the champ.

James Irvin: James lost badly in the first round, dropped two more and then was dropped himself by the UFC. It is confusing why he was chosen as a challenger to the pound-for-pound king in the first place. Because he beat Houston Alexander?

Patrick Cote: Patrick was billed as a powerful striker with KO potential. As good as he is, his striking is a few leagues lower than Anderson's. He did nothing in the fight and boasted coming out of the second round that he had made it to the third round. Cote, a la Irvin, also lost his two subsequent fights and was released by the UFC.

Thales Leites: The hype behind Leites was his submission skills. He did nothing more than flop to the mat and has yet to prove he is indeed a serious threat on the MMA mat to a fellow black belt like Silva. Thales lost his next fight, after losing to Anderson, and also was asked to leave the UFC. This was one of the least challenging title fights in sports history.

Forrest Griffin: Yes, we all love the charming Forrest. Is he an exciting fighter? Absolutely. A great fighter? No. He has won all of our hearts, but really his claim to fame is his fighting heart. His fighting style of standing and trading makes him easy target practice when against someone possessing the champ's striking prowess. This was proven when Silva stood right in front of him, hands dropped, and knocked him down with a fading jab. (Forrest fan:"No, it wasn't that bad." Well, Forrest did leave the Octagon crying.)

Tougher Tests

While not easy prey, the following challengers never provided a serious threat to the record title run of the Brazilian. While Maia is a better grappler and Sonnen is a better wrestler, none of them have the complete game necessary to dethrone a stellar champion. As good as these contenders are, they never had the champ in trouble and little drama existed in the build up nor did tension ensue in the actual contest. Their fates were always inevitable.

Rich Franklin (twice): Yes, Rich is a tough fighter. He was a long-time champion and dominated until the former Chute-Boxe star arrived. Rich did well as a result of his stand-up game. He is an excellent striker-just not near Silva's level. He was completely dominated in every moment of both fights. In fact, so much so that he went up in weight to compete in the 205 division.

Nate Marquardt: Nate is a tough guy too. A well rounded, talented, fighter, but could never get himself past the pack to another title shot. He has lost two of his last three matches and was criticized by Dana White for being a choker. His title challenge expired in the first round. A good challenger nonetheless. Nate " The Great" is good at everything, but inferior to the champ in everything. Silva even hit a wrestler's switch on him to reverse the momentum of the fight. Knocking out a jiu jitsu player is different than landing flush on the best fighter on the planet.

Demian Maia: Demian with his world class jiu jitsu posed a real threat and was a good win for Silva. However, it was one of the most unusual fights ever as Silva ran and goofed-off more than fought. Maia's chance was to get it to the ground, but Silva used his footwork and speed to make it a dance- not a fight. Thus never giving the grappling ace a chance. By the time Maia understood that Silva was not there to fight, he began to land some solid strikes of his own against the champ. Yet, he was never going to walk out with the title by winning a stand-up battle nor a dance contest with the fleeter-footed belt wearer.

Hardest Hills Climbed To Date

The toughest challenges to date, in my opinion, have come from the following two opponents.

Dan Henderson: "Hendo" is a legend. This is, until now, the toughest challenger for Silva in the UFC. Henderson took round one and finally succumbed to a rear naked choke. Dan has a clear advantage in wrestling over Anderson and sadly was never given a rematch. Henderson had made a deep weight cut and was close to 38 when they fought. Dan brought to his title shot advantages that Vitor does not, but the quicker, crisper, and more accurate hands of Belfort offer a better one shot drop potential than Dan's loaded and telegraphed right. The fact that Henderson holds a win over Vitor, and his Pride belts, make the argument that he remains Anderson's toughest challenge. For those who feel that Henderson was a tougher challenge than Vitor, I would see the merit in that perspective.

Chael Sonnen: Chael proved to be the hardest fight to date. It could be said he won all four and a half rounds. To his credit, he did not run nor lay and pray en route to an easy decision win in the final two minutes. But, his true colours came through in the end as a fighter with too many holes (8 submission losses- 4 via triangle- Nate almost had him tapping too) in his game to be champion. An injured rib may also have played a big role in Chael's mighty performance. In my opinion, Chael's dominance was an anomaly. However, give Chael all the credit in the world, he backed up his talk and gave the world a wonderful show!

It could also be argued that a Sonnen rematch is more dangerous to Silva than the Belfort confrontation, but I believe a healthy Silva cleans him up with the striking or subs him again from bottom. Although he has fared the best, I see Belfort's power as more menacing than someone taking shots to procure a takedown, to then be in a position where they are susceptible to submissions. 

What can Vitor do?

Dana White brought him here for one reason. To make Anderson fight. Why did he choose Vitor Belfort? Vitor comes in on a five fight win streak and with three consecutive KO wins. The last two, in the first round, against top contenders: Rich Franklin and Matt Lindland. Nobody on Anderson's vanquished list has Vitor's hand speed. Although, Dan Henderson's overhand right and the dynamite in Nate Marquardt's hands are comparable to Belfort's power- none can reach their target as laser-quick.

The 19-8 fighter has been in excellent form and holds an advantage on the ground with his Carlson Gracie awarded black belt and bronze medal success at the A.D.C.C. in 2001. While Anderson holds a black belt as well, A Carlson Gracie black belt and high level competition success trumps a Nogueira black belt. The Phenom also possesses one shot knockout power that rivals or surpasses that of the long time 185 pound division champion.

This will be the first Silva fight where the champ could lose it all in an instant. None of the other challengers offered that threat. While Maia could have subbed him, Chael could have wrestled to a decision win, and Henderson could have ground and pounded out a "W"- Vitor, the former UFC heavyweight champion- can do it in an instant. That is what makes this fight exciting to watch.

Playing MMA math never makes sense, but here it is anyways. Both have KO wins over Rich Franklin. Vitor did it with his hand speed and power in the first round. Anderson did it twice, but through constant pressure and superior skills. Dan Henderson holds a decision win over Belfort while Anderson has a submission win over the former Pride king.

Prediction


 Overall, I think Anderson is the better striker. Vitor will have ring rust and is coming off surgery on his left shoulder. His last fight was in September, 2009. and he has a slight feud with his striking coach Shawn Tompkins who is questioning Vitor's loyalty for jumping from gym to gym. Making weight for 185 might also be an issue since he has not fought at 185 in two years. Regardless of the outcome, it will be the first Silva fight that I will watch knowing at any minute his MMA win streak, which is now at 13, and his record for most consecutive UFC wins-at 12- and his record for consecutive UFC title defenses-at 7- could potentially end in a flash.
This is the first time the champ will see someone with this combination of speed, accuracy, and power. Although, he is a Southpaw, Belfort's straight right cross is his most lethal shot. Maia and Sonnen were able to land their crosses. Should Vitor be able to do the same, he has the potential to rain on the Spider's parade. However, I expect initially to see a lot of fencing and hesitation with Silva winning by using his footwork and outside striking. Anderson is also a very intelligent fighter who could utilize his kicks and clinch game to continue his record-breaking streak. However, the challenger's one shot power, along with his jiu jitsu, will make every moment worth watching. This cannot be said about the champ's past fights. The end of the reign has never been challenged to this degree.

Whether Vitor connects or not, knowing what could happen if he did, makes this a compelling challenge. More importantly, here is a challenger against whom Silva cannot cheat the paying public by dancing around. This time he is up against someone who can tune him like a Samba instrument if he plays those weird, running games. Watch this Saturday to finally see Anderson Silva battle someone with the potential to usurp the Spider or at least- make him fight!